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E&Y: Poland to remain growth star in CEE despite slowdown


2012-05-16



Ernst & Young (E&Y) has slightly lowered its forecast of economic growth in Poland this year due to weaker external conditions, but still expects the country to be a star performer in the CEE region and its GDP growth to get back above 4% in 2014-2015, according to a new edition of the Ernst & Young Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast.

With the eurozone economy now projected to contract by 0.5% this year, E&Y expects GDP growth in Poland to decelerate to 2.4% in 2012 from 4.3% in 2011, compared with a previous forecast of 2.5%. The slight downward adjustment does not alter E&Y’s general conclusion that the country “is set to weather the eurozone storm”. In 2013 growth is forecast to pick up to 2.7%, before recovering more strongly in 2014 and 2015, to 4.2% and 4.1%, respectively, in line with improving external conditions.

E&Y sees substantial downside and upside risks to this scenario. The former include a disorderly sovereign default in the eurozone that could trigger a much deeper recession in Poland’s key trading partners. On the other hand, recent data have shown little evidence of a significant loss of momentum in Poland, with industrial output for example holding up surprisingly well.

Poland is one of two EU countries included in E&Y’s list of 25 rapid-growth markets, selected on the basis of three criteria, namely proven strong growth and future potential, size of the economy and population, and strategic importance for business. The other one is the Czech Republic, which E&Y expects to experience a 0.3% contraction of economic output this year.



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