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Lewiatan Business Index dips in April


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index shed one point in April to stand at 40 points, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index gained two points to 44 points.

In its commentary, the Confederation notes that the Index has stabilised at a level below the middle point of the scale, pointing to a gradual deceleration of annualised GDP growth going forward, with a possible small uptick in Q2 and a slight downward trend in the second half of the year.

Industrial output growth has slowed sharply in the first months of the year, but retail sales have held up well despite stagnant real wages and sluggish employment growth, and while exports are slowing down as economic weakness spreads to more of the country’s main export markets, the process is far from dramatic, cushioned by a weak zloty and by the well-established international competitiveness of Polish exporters. Even so, GDP figures for the first quarter are likely to bring first evidence of economic slowdown in Poland, a trend that might deepen in the coming quarters, especially considering the likely waning of consumption, the Confederation says. One factor that could soften the impact for the economy is business investment. According to Lewiatan, though companies in Poland have been cutting inventories, they appear keen to use their record profits to modernise their machine parks during the soft period so as to enhance their competitiveness for better times.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

Lewiatan Business Index in Poland, April 2011-April 2012

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