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Inflation slows to 3.9% y-o-y in March


The consumer price index (CPI) amounted to 3.9% y-o-y in March, a deceleration compared with the previous month, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. The figure was in line with market expectations.

The highest price increase in the 12 months to March was recorded in transport, a category that includes car fuel (up by 9.3% y-o-y), followed by housing and energy (up by 6% y-o-y). Above-average price growth was also noted in education (up by 5% y-o-y), in alcoholic beverages and tobacco products (up by 4.8% y-o-y), and in health (up by 4.2% y-o-y). The prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages went up by 3.7% y-o-y, those of restaurant and hotel services by 3.1% y-o-y, while in the recreation and culture sector prices rose by 1.7% y-o-y. On the other hand, the prices of clothing and footwear products declined by 4.4% y-o-y, while communication charges went down by 0.3% y-o-y.

On a month-on-month basis the CPI was 0.5%.

In January-March consumer prices increased by 4.1% y-o-y. In our view, though a rising comparative base will exert a moderating pressure on consumer price growth in the coming months, its effect is likely to be largely neutralised by the continued weakness of the zloty and by high global oil prices. We forecast that in 2012 as a whole the average annualised CPI will amount to 3.9%.

Consumer price index in Poland (%, y-o-y), March 2011-March 2012

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