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Lewiatan Business Index stays put in March


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index remained unchanged at 41 points in March, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index also did not move last month and stayed at 42 points.

In its commentary, the Confederation notes that following six months of declines, the Index appears to have stabilised at a level substantially below the middle point of the scale. This suggests a significant but fairly orderly slowdown of GDP growth compared with a year ago, with a possible small uptick in Q2 and a slight downward trend in the remainder of the year.

Although January figures for industrial production and retail sales were impressive, factory output growth slowed sharply in February, as did wage and employment growth. This was a consequence of flagging foreign demand and deteriorating outlook for consumption, amid rising unemployment and a shrinking wage bill. Under these circumstances, the chances of further recovery in business investment, particularly in the second half of 2012, are looking less certain, the Confederation reckons. Poland’s banks and non-financial enterprises remain in excellent health, though, turning record profits, which continues to provide a solid basis for growth, Lewiatan noted. However, the country’s macroeconomic stability parameters have worsened again in the first months of 2012 due to a fast-rising budget deficit and stubbornly high inflation and unemployment.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

Lewiatan Business Index in Poland, March 2011-March 2012

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