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Industrial output up by 4.6% y-o-y in February


Industrial output rose by 4.6% y-o-y in February, a deceleration compared with the previous month, according to data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The result was markedly below market expectations, which averaged 8.7% y-o-y.

Compared with the corresponding period of 2011, output was up in 26 (out of 34) industrial sectors. Of the main sectors, the highest growth (up by 5.5% y-o-y) was noted in water supply, waste management and remediation activities, followed by manufacturing (up by 5% y-o-y) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up by 4.8% y-o-y). At the same time, in mining-quarrying output declined by 6.8% y-o-y.

In the case of the country’s manufacturing sub-sectors, particularly strong increases were reported in metal products and chemicals and chemical products (up by 14.8% y-o-y in both cases). High single-digit growth occurred in machinery and equipment (up by 9.4% y-o-y), in paper and paper products (up by 8% y-o-y) and in electrical equipment (up by 7.7% y-o-y). In the food sector output rose by 6% y-o-y. On the other hand, production of other non-metallic mineral products went down by 6.8% y-o-y, furniture by 1.8% y-o-y, and coke and refined petroleum products by 1.1% y-o-y.

In January-February 2012 industrial output grew by 6.9% y-o-y.

Industrial output in Poland (%, y-o-y), February 2011-February 2012

Industrial output growth slowed sharply in February after a strong increase in January. Although the weaker February figures partly reflect lower order inflows, a trend reported by companies over the past several months, in our view the main factor was a deterioration of weather conditions. Just as relatively mild weather stimulated output for much of January, the frost snap that came the following month brought a lot of outdoor business activity to a standstill, thus hurting industrial output particularly in sectors related to construction. We expect industrial output to recover in March, helped by more benign weather conditions and a lower base of comparison, though the scale of the increase will be moderated by fewer working days compared with a year earlier.

Paweł Sionko
Senior Economist
PMR Publications

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