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JP Morgan: GDP growth to be 3.2% in 2012


JP Morgan has raised its forecast of economic growth in Poland in 2012 for the second time in as many weeks. The US investment bank now expects the Polish economy to expand by 3.2% this year, instead of 3% as projected in late February.

JP Morgan notes that the Polish economy started 2012 on a robust footing, with no signs of a sharp slowdown. It is still expected to decelerate in the coming quarters, particularly in Q2 and Q3, as the effects of the government’s fiscal consolidation programme, and the consequential fall in public investment, begin to be felt. Overall, the second half of the year is set to be more difficult than H1.

Consumer inflation is forecast to return within the central bank’s target band (i.e. 2.5% y-o-y +/- 1 p.p.) by Q2, and average annualised inflation in 2012 will amount to 3.5%, according to JP Morgan.

The general government deficit is expected to fall by 2 p.p. to 3.5% of GDP in 2012 and 2013, while general government debt is projected to remain stable after ending 2011 at 53.5% of GDP.

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