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BIEC: economic climate dips in February


The Leading Indicator (WWK), which provides information on future trends in the economy, shed one point in February, the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported. According to the Bureau, current trends suggest a stabilisation of economic growth in Poland at around last year’s levels, with the likelihood of a slight slowdown in the second half of the year.

In its commentary the BIEC notes that many of the eight component indicators of the WWK have hovered around the same values since last year, with no strong upward or downward tendencies, and that the changes observed in February were similarly marginal in most cases. Three sub-indicators improved during the month while five deteriorated, the same as in January. The positives include an improvement in managers’ assessments of the financial health of their companies, a rise in labour productivity in the manufacturing sector, and better sentiment on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The negatives include a markedly slower inflow of new orders in the manufacturing sector, weaker demand for bank loans among Polish households, a rise in inventories of finished goods, or bleaker views on the outlook for the domestic economy.

Poland’s companies and households appear to have accepted the new environment characterised on the one hand by the relative strength of the Polish economy and on the other by persisting turbulence and uncertainty in the global economy; as a result, their perceptions of economic developments have become less dramatic, the Bureau concludes.

The WWK is a prognostic instrument. It is a measure of the current state of economic activity and provides advanced information on upturns and downturns in economic activity in relation to GDP as well as data on production, retail sales, wages and household incomes. The average prognostic timeframe of the WWK index in relation to the actual state of economic affairs ranges from 3 to 12 months, depending on the phase of the economic cycle.

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