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Lewiatan Business Index slips in January


2012-02-07



The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index shed two points in January to stand at 43 points, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index slipped one point to 43.

According to the Confederation, the anticipated slowdown of economic growth in Poland is likely to be modest in scale and to occur in the second half of the year. Lewiatan notes that industrial output, construction activity and exports all continued to expand at a strong rate until the end of last year (though retail sales slowed somewhat in December), and that this trend should be maintained at least in the first half of this year. This scenario is made more likely by the robust financial health of the enterprise and banking sectors and by improving performance of the German economy, Poland’s main trading partner. Furthermore, the country’s macroeconomic stability has been reinforced with a reduction of the general government deficit, public debt kept below the constitutional limit, and small current account deficit. On the other hand, the outlook for unemployment and inflation is pessimistic, the Confederation noted.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.



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