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IBnGR predicts 2.9% GDP growth in 2012


GDP growth in Poland will slow to 2.9% this year before accelerating to 3.2% in 2013, according to a latest set of forecasts from the Gdansk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR), one of the country’s leading think tanks. This represents a downward revision of the Institute’s previous projection of 2012 growth published in October 2011, which put the figure at 3.4%.

The Institute expects the economy to decelerate gradually in the course of this year, with GDP growth projected to fall from 3.7% y-o-y in Q1 to 2.4% y-o-y in Q4. According to the IBnGR, construction will be the fastest-growing sector in both 2012 and 2013. It will perform strongly particularly in the first half of the year, helped by projects related to Euro 2012.

Domestic demand is projected to rise by 2.7% in 2012, a growth rate 1.1 p.p. lower than in 2011, owing chiefly to an anticipated slowdown in investment, to 4.9% from 8.7% last year. Private consumption will also slow, but by a smaller margin, to 2.8% from 3.1%, the Institute reckons. In 2013 domestic demand is forecast to accelerate to 3.5%, led by a rebound in investment to 7.2%. Private consumption is to grow by 2.9%.

At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 12.8% by the end of this year, before dropping 1 p.p. to 11.8% during 2013. Average annualised inflation is forecast to be 3.9% this year and to fall to 2.8% in 2013.

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