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Goldman Sachs forecasts 2% growth in 2012, rise in M&A activity


The Polish economy will grow by 2% this year before accelerating to 3.3% in 2013, according to an updated forecast from Goldman Sachs. The US investment bank expects domestic demand to soften substantially in 2012 as a result of fiscal consolidation measures implemented by the government. However, the actual rate of GDP growth will depend to a large extent on the health of the eurozone economy, and if Poland’s key trading partners maintain their current positive performance, the growth forecast might be revised upwards, Goldman’s Magdalena Polan said at a news conference on 31 January.

The US bank expects interest rates in Poland to remain intact throughout 2012-2013, and the zloty to strengthen against both the euro and the US dollar in the course of this year.

According to Goldman Sachs, Poland is also likely to benefit from a rise in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity by foreign investors, as part of a wider improvement in sentiment towards emerging-market assets in a period of low interest rates in the United States. With attractive valuations and with relative ease of securing deal financing, M&A activity in Poland could go beyond the "usual" sectors such as financial services or utilities and extend to e.g. food or pharmaceuticals, the US bank reckons.

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