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BIEC: economic climate dips in January


The Leading Indicator (WWK), which provides information on future trends in the economy, shed 0.6 points in January, the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported. According to the Bureau, the year 2012 is likely to witness a stabilisation of economic growth in Poland at a somewhat lower level compared with 2011.

Of the eight component indicators of the WWK, three improved in January while five deteriorated. New manufacturing orders rose for the fourth consecutive month. However, this was due solely to an increase in domestic orders, which offset a substantial deterioration in export orders. Inventories of finished goods decreased, but the decline was small and came after a significant increase in December. The other positive sign was an improvement in real money supply thanks to higher deposits in the business and household sectors. The biggest negative contributor was a slowdown in household loans. There was also a decline in labour productivity in the manufacturing sector.

The WWK is a prognostic instrument. It is a measure of the current state of economic activity and provides advanced information on upturns and downturns in economic activity in relation to GDP as well as data on production, retail sales, wages and household incomes. The average prognostic timeframe of the WWK index in relation to the actual state of economic affairs ranges from 3 to 12 months, depending on the phase of the economic cycle.

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