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Bank of America forecasts 3% growth in Poland in 2012


Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoAML) has made a significant upward revision of its forecast of GDP growth in Poland in 2012, and a similarly substantial upgrade of its estimate of the country’s performance last year. The bank now believes the Polish economy expanded by 4.3% in 2011, compared with an earlier estimate of 3.8%; and it forecasts GDP growth in the country to be 3% this year, rather than 2.6% as previously projected.

BoAML expects that economic growth in Poland will be supported by better-than-expected performance of the German economy, as well as rising business investment. The bank noted that it saw a downside risk for this scenario from an abrupt deterioration in Germany, which would exert an immediate negative effect on Polish exports and confidence; as well as, potentially, from a marked strengthening of the zloty.

According to BoAML, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) will raise interest rates twice, by a total of 50 basis points, in the first half of the year (most probably in March and May), as the possibility of inflation returning to the target band becomes more distant. Though consumer inflation has probably peaked, it will not return to the central bank's target of 2.5% even in 2013, the bank reckons.

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