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EBRD: GDP growth to slow to 2.3% in 2012 from 4.2% in 2011


The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has slightly upgraded its forecast of economic growth in Poland this year and raised sharply its estimate of the rate of expansion of the Polish economy in 2011, even as it reduced its overall forecasts for Central Europe and the Baltic States in 2012.

In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, published on 24 January, the EBRD puts the projected growth rate in Poland this year at 2.3%, compared with 2.2% in the October report. The rate of GDP growth achieved by the country last year is now estimated at 4.2%, compared with 3.7% three months earlier.

The report notes that Poland will benefit from considerable weakness of its currency, whereas ambitious fiscal consolidation reforms undertaken by the government will exert a downward pressure on growth.

By way of comparison, Slovakia is forecast to expand by 1.3% this year, down from an estimated 3.2% in 2011; while Hungary is expected to experience a contraction of 1.5%, following 1.5% growth last year.

The Central Europe and the Baltic States region as a whole is forecast to grow by 1.4% rather than 1.7% this year, after 3.4% expansion in 2011 (up from an original estimate of 3.1%).

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