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Saxo forecasts 2.5% GDP growth in 2012


The Polish economy will expand by a "healthy" 2.5% in 2012, remaining one of the best-performing economies in the EU even as the eurozone goes into recession that may well be deeper than the current consensus of -0.5%, according to a new set of forecasts from Saxo Bank.

By way of comparison, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are projected to see growth of 1.5% next year and Hungary 1%.

The Danish bank notes that as the Polish government implements fiscal consolidation measures to reduce spending and deficits, the private sector will need to take the lead in generating growth. Even so, the labour market is set to remain sluggish and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 12.5% by the end of this year. Meanwhile, consumer inflation in Poland will ease to about 3% in 2012 from over 4% in 2011, according to Saxo Bank.

The situation in the eurozone will continue to pose downward risks to growth in Poland in 2012.

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