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Lewiatan Business Index takes a dip in December


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index shed one point in December to stand at 45 points, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index also fell one point to 44. According to the Confederation, the recent performance of the Index suggests that the anticipated slowing of economic growth in 2012 is set to be a rather mild one and that no dramatic fall in economic activity should occur in the course of this year.

In its commentary, the Confederation notes that the predominant factor behind the gloomy expectations is growing uncertainty about the global economy, fuelled by the eurozone debt crisis. So far the only piece of domestic macroeconomic data pointing to deteriorating conditions has been slower export growth, whereas retail sales and industrial output have been in an upward trend. Poland’s resilience to the global downturn is further helped by the robust financial situation of its businesses and banks. Furthermore, the country's foreign trade deficit is small and its net exports are growing, which testifies to the international competitiveness of the economy. The lower-than-expected general government deficit in 2011, and the fact that the general government debt remained below the 55% of GDP limit, are also positive signs that should help Poland maintain its credit rating. Nonetheless, one should be prepared for a significant and progressive softening of demand during 2012, the Confederation concludes.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

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