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BIEC: economic climate edges up in December


The Leading Indicator (WWK), which provides information on future trends in the economy, gained 0.5 points in December, the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported. It was its third (small) increase in a row. According to the Bureau, the general trend in the Polish economy is one of stability, which is a unique achievement amid continued global uncertainty and low confidence in the financial markets.

Of the eight component indicators of the WWK, six improved in December while two deteriorated. New manufacturing orders rose for the third straight month, with particularly notable improvement reported by exporters benefiting from a weaker zloty, especially in sectors such as machinery and equipment, furniture or electronic equipment. At the same time, inventories of finished goods increased sharply in December, which could be a further sign of growing confidence about the level of demand, though a different, less optimistic interpretation cannot be ruled out either. Labour productivity also improved, which together with the continued strength in industrial output led to better assessments among companies in Poland of their own financial health and of the outlook for the Polish economy, though both indicators remained below year-ago levels.

The WWK is a prognostic instrument. It is a measure of the current state of economic activity and provides advanced information on upturns and downturns in economic activity in relation to GDP as well as data on production, retail sales, wages and household incomes. The average prognostic timeframe of the WWK index in relation to the actual state of economic affairs ranges from 3 to 12 months, depending on the phase of the economic cycle.

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