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JP Morgan raises 2011 growth estimate


JP Morgan has upgraded its forecast of GDP growth in Poland in the fourth quarter and in 2011 as a whole, in response to stronger-than-expected November figures for industrial output released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on 19 December. The US bank now expects the Polish economy to expand by 3.5% y-o-y in Q4, and by 4.1% in 2011.

JP Morgan commented that the strong rate of industrial output growth recorded last month called into question expectations of a sharp economic slowdown in Q4 (the PMI index for November pointed to stagnation), and that production was apparently benefiting from a mixture of resilient domestic demand and a weaker zloty.

See the news item ‘Industrial output up by 8.7% y-o-y in November’.

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