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Manpower: outlook for hiring deteriorates


Fewer Polish firms expect to hire new workers in the next quarter, but there has been no matching increase in firing intentions and the balance remains narrowly positive, according to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, an international quarterly study by the US employment services firm.

The survey shows that 14% Polish firms are planning to add new jobs in the first quarter of 2012, while 11% anticipate job cuts. This compares to 17% and 10%, respectively, in the previous quarter and marks a four-point decline in the balance of employment expectations compared with three months earlier, to +3 points, the lowest level since data for Poland were first available in Q2 2008 (on a year-on-year basis the result represents a drop of two points). The percentage of firms expecting no changes to employment levels during the coming quarter rose by two points to 71%.

Six of the 10 main economic sectors covered by the study showed a positive net employment outlook for Q1 2012, though in seven the balance deteriorated compared with three months earlier. Companies in the transport and logistics sector were relatively the most bullish about the outlook for hiring, with a net balance of +15 points (up eight), and finance, insurance, real estate & business services (+12 points), followed by construction (+8 points) and wholesale and retail trade (+7 points). The public sector moved into positive territory (+4 points) after a six-point improvement. By contrast, in the manufacturing sector the balance plunged by 17% points and moved into negative territory (-1 points). A similarly sharp decline occurred in agriculture, forestry and fishing, which reported the worst balance (-12 points). The two other sectors with a negative outlook are energy, gas and water supply (-11 points) and mining (-3 points).

The Polish leg of the survey was conducted between 20 October and 2 November on a representative sample of 750 companies.

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