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Lewiatan Business Index falls in November


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index shed two points in November to stand at 46 points, its lowest level since the beginning of 2011, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index fell three points to 45.

In its commentary the Confederation notes that the decline in the Index reflects growing uncertainty in the Polish business sector about the global economy and the debt crisis in the eurozone, as well as first signs of weakening domestic demand. It means the country’s business community believes a slowdown in the fourth quarter is all but guaranteed. And indeed, though latest figures for retail sales, industrial output or investment are far from pessimistic, the third quarter saw a clear deceleration of consumption, and more recently there has been a slowdown in construction activity and exports.

Stalling job growth and stubbornly high unemployment are likely to restrict wage growth and produce a further deceleration of consumption going forward, the Confederation says. Considering the grim outlook for the global economy, it is unlikely too that the current level of business investment will be maintained. Nevertheless, GDP growth for 2011 as a whole is set to be robust, and the coming slowdown will not be felt very quickly, cushioned by the strength of Poland’s business and banking sectors and by a budget deficit that has been brought fully under control. We could also draw optimism from the acceleration in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Poland, despite the global downturn.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

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