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BPH forecasts 3.2% growth in 2012


2011-12-12



BPH, the bank owned by GE Money, has upgraded its estimate of economic growth in Poland this year and adopted a projection for 2012 that assumes GDP growth will remain above 3% next year.

BPH raised its forecast of GDP growth in 2011 to 4.1% from 4%, after a stronger-than-expected contribution from net exports in the third quarter. The bank expects the economy to expand by 3.5% y-o-y in Q4.

The year 2012 is set to bring a further softening of consumption and a likely slowdown in investments, with net exports assuming a greater role in sustaining economic growth, according to BPH. The bank’s baseline scenario assumes that the overall slowdown will be limited, however, with the economy projected to grow by 3.2% next year. But the forecast has very high risks on the downside, BPH noted, due to the debt crisis in the eurozone and the condition of Europe’s banks.

The unemployment rate is forecast to be 12.9% at the end of 2012, up from 12.7% projected for end-2011. Inflation is to remain above 3% next year, down from around 4% at the end of 2011.



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