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Keralla: confidence in SME sector weakens further on fears of sharp downturn


Sentiment in the Polish SME sector took a further hit at the end of the third quarter as companies braced themselves for a second wave of the crisis, according to a quarterly survey by Keralla Research. There are no signs of nervousness or panic, however, and investments have not ground to a complete halt, the company said.

KERNA, Keralla’s composite indicator of SME sentiment, amounted to -65.02 points, its lowest level since 2009, after falling by nearly nine points from three months earlier and by 13.7 points compared with the same period a year ago. SMEs in Poland were particularly gloomy about the present state and outlook for the domestic economy, with the relevant component indicators dropping down to their historic lows. The balance of expectations about own performance also deteriorated.

At the same time, the ZAIR index, which measures anticipated investments, registered an only slight decline compared with the previous quarter, by 0.15 p.p. to -69.65 points. In yearly terms it shed more than 16 points, however. The survey found that investments in the fourth quarter were likely to be broadly at the same level as in Q3, but there was a significant fall in the percentage of firms expecting to add new jobs in Q4, to 8.2% from 14.2% three months earlier.

The survey was conducted between 10 and 20 October. It is based on interviews with a representative sample of 600 companies employing less than 250 people (including microfirms), weighted to the profile of all SMEs in Poland.

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