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BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs publish lower forecasts of Polish GDP growth in 2012


BNP Paribas, the French banking group, has cut its outlook for GDP growth in Poland in 2012 to 1.6%, from 2.3% projected in October, reflecting the anticipated impact of the more radical fiscal consolidation measures announced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. According to the bank, although their short-term effect will be a more pronounced slowdown in 2012 than previously thought, the reforms will lay the groundwork for a stronger rebound in 2013, when economic growth in Poland should pick up to 2.4%.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, reduced its 2012 forecast for Poland to 2% from 2.8%, even as it upgraded its projection of 2011 growth to 4.2% following the publication of better-than-expected GDP growth figures for the third quarter. The main reason for the downward adjustment is weakness in the eurozone, whose economy is forecast to contract by 0.8% next year. Even so, Poland’s macroeconomic performance is expected to be significantly stronger than that of the Czech Republic, where growth is expected to slow to just 0.3% in 2012, or Hungary, which is predicted to fall into recession in 2012 with a 0.5% decline in its GDP. In 2013 economic growth in Poland will accelerate to 3.3%, according to Goldman Sachs.

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