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BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs publish lower forecasts of Polish GDP growth in 2012


2011-12-02



BNP Paribas, the French banking group, has cut its outlook for GDP growth in Poland in 2012 to 1.6%, from 2.3% projected in October, reflecting the anticipated impact of the more radical fiscal consolidation measures announced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. According to the bank, although their short-term effect will be a more pronounced slowdown in 2012 than previously thought, the reforms will lay the groundwork for a stronger rebound in 2013, when economic growth in Poland should pick up to 2.4%.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, reduced its 2012 forecast for Poland to 2% from 2.8%, even as it upgraded its projection of 2011 growth to 4.2% following the publication of better-than-expected GDP growth figures for the third quarter. The main reason for the downward adjustment is weakness in the eurozone, whose economy is forecast to contract by 0.8% next year. Even so, Poland’s macroeconomic performance is expected to be significantly stronger than that of the Czech Republic, where growth is expected to slow to just 0.3% in 2012, or Hungary, which is predicted to fall into recession in 2012 with a 0.5% decline in its GDP. In 2013 economic growth in Poland will accelerate to 3.3%, according to Goldman Sachs.



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