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Morgan Stanley lowers growth forecast for Poland


Morgan Stanley (MS) has cut its forecast of economic growth in Poland next year, but expects the country to remain a star performer in the region thanks to a stronger domestic market and greater resistance to external shocks compared with the Czech Republic or Hungary.

MS now anticipates that the Polish economy will expand by 2.5% in 2012, compared with its previous forecast of 3.2% and down from 4.2% projected for this year. Only one country from the bank’s Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) region is projected to achieve higher growth in 2012, namely Russia (5%, compared with 4.5% in 2011). In 2013 GDP growth in Poland is expected to pick up slightly to 3.3%, and in 2014-2018 it is to reach an average of 4%.

The eurozone is expected to slip into recession next year, with an 0.2% contraction of its GDP, compared with previously forecast growth of 0.5%. Next year's global growth is now put at 3.5%, down from 3.8%.

The CEEMEA region includes eight countries: Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Israel, and South Africa.

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