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OECD cuts 2012-2013 growth forecast for Poland to 2.5%


GDP growth in Poland will slow noticeably in 2012 and 2013 due to fiscal retrenchment and a projected sharp slowdown in the eurozone, according to new forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

In its latest Economic Outlook report released on 28 November, which warns that the global economy is "not out of the woods" and calls for decisive policy action, the OECD says private consumption and investment in Poland are set to "decelerate rapidly" in the next two years, holding the country’s GDP growth down to 2.5% in 2012 and 2013, from an estimated 4.2% in 2011. The Organisation notes that the weakening of domestic demand may be partly compensated by stronger net exports, helped by a weaker zloty and the Euro 2012 football championships.

As a result, Poland’s unemployment rate (as measured by LFS) is forecast to rise to 9.9% in 2012 and 10.2% in 2013, from 9.6% at the end of 2011. Consumer inflation is projected to slow to 2.5% in 2012 and to remain at that level in 2013, down from 4% in 2011.

At the same time, the OECD expects that Poland’s general government deficit will be brought down below 3% of GDP already next year (2.9% in 2012, 2% in 2013), down from 5.4% in 2011.

As for other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the Czech economy is predicted to slow to 1.6% next year from 2.1% in 2011, before accelerating to 3% in 2013; Slovakia is forecast to see growth of 1.8% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013, compared with 3% in 2011; while Hungary is expected to slide into recession next year, with negative growth of 0.6%, before rebounding to 1.1% in 2013 (in 2011 the Hungarian economy is projected to expand by 1.5%).

GDP in the eurozone is forecast to rise by just 0.2% in 2012 and by 1.4% 2013, compared with 1.6% growth projected for 2011.

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