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Industrial output up by 6.5% y-o-y in October


Industrial output rose by 6.5% y-o-y in October, a deceleration compared with the previous month, according to data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The result was below market expectations, which averaged 7.2% y-o-y.

Compared with the corresponding period of 2010, output was up in 25 (out of 34) industrial sectors. Of the main sectors, the highest growth (up by 7.1% y-o-y) was noted in manufacturing, followed by water supply, waste management and remediation activities (up by 6.8% y-o-y). Output in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply went up by 2.7% y-o-y. By contrast, production in the mining-quarrying sector declined by 3.7% y-o-y.

In the case of the country’s manufacturing sub-sectors, particularly strong increases were reported in other transport equipment (up by 45.2% y-o-y), basic metals (up by 19.2% y-o-y), leather products (up by 18.6% y-o-y), furniture (up by 17.8% y-o-y), or printing and reproduction of recorded media (up by 16.1% y-o-y). On the other hand, production of pharmaceuticals slumped by 20.4% y-o-y, that of computer, electronic and optical equipment declined by 6.3% y-o-y, while coke and refined petroleum products saw a 3.4% fall in output.

In January-October industrial output grew by 7.6% y-o-y.

The October increase in industrial output was smaller than the month before, even despite a lower base of comparison. However, the deceleration was not a significant one, and moreover, seasonally-adjusted figures in fact show a slight improvement compared with September. This is evidence that the Polish economy keeps expanding at a solid pace, displaying considerable resistance to global shocks such as the debt crisis and slowing growth in the eurozone. The comparatively strong level of economic activity in Poland is due mainly to its resilient domestic market and its relatively lesser dependence on international trade, as well as to the flexible exchange rate of the zloty, which is absorbing the negative effects of weakening global demand, boosting the competitiveness of Polish products both internationally and domestically.

At the same time, however, a monthly Central Statistical Office (GUS) survey of conditions in Poland’s manufacturing sector showed a decline in current order books in November (for domestic and export orders alike) and a resulting slowdown of output. And manufacturers’ expectations about output in the near term point to a deepening of this negative trend. Therefore we forecast that in the coming months industrial output growth will slow below 5% y-o-y.

Paweł Sionko

Senior Economist

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