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Credit Suisse cuts 2012 growth forecast for Poland to 2.3%


2011-11-17



Credit Suisse (CS), the global financial services group, has lowered its forecast of economic growth in Poland in 2011 and 2012, as part of a wider downgrade of its outlook for nine emerging economies in the EMEA region. The bank now expects the Polish economy to expand by 3.8% in 2011, down from previously projected 4%, and to slow to 2.3% next year, compared with 4%.

The forecasts for the Czech and Hungarian economies have also been markedly reduced. They are now projected to grow by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, in 2012. The average growth rate in the nine countries covered by the report (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Israel and South Africa) in 2012 has been lowered to 3.2% from 3.8%.

The downgrade came two days after CS announced that it was now forecasting recession in the eurozone in 2012, with the area’s GDP projected to contract by 0.5% next year, compared with a previous forecast of 1% growth. The bank expects the low point of the downturn to come in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012.



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