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UBS: Poland to remain among strongest CEE economies in 2012-2013


2011-11-16



Poland should remain the growth leader in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region in the years 2012-2013, despite an anticipated slowdown in GDP growth to just below 3% next year, UBS, the Swiss investment bank, said in its latest EMEA Economics - Outlook 2012 published on 15 November.

UBS expects GDP growth in Poland to come in at 4% this year, before slowing to 2.9% in 2012. In 2013 the Polish economy is projected to rebound to 3.4%.

According to the Swiss bank, domestic demand will remain the main engine of growth in Poland in the years ahead. The main challenge for the government will be to reduce the general government deficit to 3% of GDP from a projected 5.5% in 2011, which UBS says will require fresh fiscal consolidation measures worth 0.5-1% of GDP, on top of those already implemented, such as increases in VAT rates or a cap on spending.

UBS does not expect public debt to rise above the constitutional limit of 55% of GDP over the next two years. Inflation is forecast to fall back to the target range in Q1 2012 and to remain within it at least until the end of 2013. The main interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.50%.

The revised growth forecast for the eurozone is 0.2% in 2012 and 1% in 2013, and for Germany 0.8% and 1.6%.



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