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Brussels cuts growth forecast for Poland but still expects above-average performance


The European Commission has downgraded its growth forecast for Poland in 2012 and 2013. The revision came as part of a drastic cut in Brussels’ growth projections for the EU economy, amid warnings of stagnation extending well into 2012 and a risk of new recession. Against this backdrop, Poland is expected to remain one of the EU’s best performers next year.

In its autumn forecast published on 10 November, the European Commission says Poland is beginning to feel the repercussions of the global slowdown and weaker external demand, but that the impact is likely to be relatively benign, thanks to resilient domestic demand. GDP growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% in 2012, compared with previously projected 3.7%, before picking up slightly to 2.8% in 2013. At the same time, Brussels still expects 2011 growth to come in at 4%.

The EU economy is forecast to slow to 0.6% in 2012, down from a projected 1.6% this year, before recovering to 1.5% in 2013. Growth in the eurozone is projected to reach 1.5% this year, 0.5% in 2012 and 1.3% in 2013.

As for other major CEE economies, the Czech Republic is forecast to grow by 1.8% in 2011, by 0.7% in 2012, and by 1.7% in 2013; GDP growth in Hungary is to be 1.4% in 2011, 0.5% in 2012 and 1.4% in 2013; and in Slovakia respectively 2.9%, 1.1% and 2.9% in 2013.

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