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Lewiatan Business Index dips in October


2011-11-07



The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index fell one point in October to 48, its second dip in a row, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index shed two points and also stands at 48 points.

In its commentary the Confederation stressed that the latest index figures, which point to an anticipated slowdown of economic activity in Poland in the fourth quarter, reflected mounting concerns about the global economy and the eurozone debt crisis, and had no direct basis in the domestic economic situation. On the contrary, industrial output and retail sales have been growing robustly in recent months, and so (unexpectedly) have exports. The budget deficit too is now sufficiently under control to assure confidence among investors. The chief cause for concern is the persistent weakness in the labour market, with rising unemployment and flagging job creation, but the wage bill keeps expanding, as does lending to business. According to PKPP, the impact of the global downturn on the Polish economy is set to be delayed, but will begin to be felt already before the end of the year.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.



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