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UBS reduces growth forecast for Poland


UBS, the Swiss financial group, has cut its forecast of economic growth in Poland in 2012 to 2.9% from previously projected 3.3%, as it downgraded its outlook for the eurozone economy next year. The updated forecast – which came in a new report on seven emerging-market countries, mostly in Central and Eastern Europe – still compares highly favourably with that for the Czech Republic (1%) or Hungary (0.5%), and is above the average for the group.

The bank now expects GDP growth in the euro area to be a mere 0.2% next year, down from a previous forecast of 1%. The German economy is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2012 and by 1.6% in 2013.

UBS placed Poland in a group of four emerging-market countries set to achieve relatively respectable GDP growth of between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2012, helped by healthy domestic demand. The three others are Russia, South Africa and Israel. Turkey is expected to see growth of about 2% in 2012. The average growth rate for the seven countries next year is 2.7%

In 2013 growth in Poland is to pick up to 3.4%, compared with 3.5% on average in the seven countries, according to UBS.

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