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IBnGR predicts only mild slowdown, with GDP growth to be 3.4% in 2012


GDP growth in Poland will amount to 3.8% this year, same as in 2010, and will ease to 3.4% in 2012, according to a latest quarterly set of forecasts from the Gdansk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR), one of the country’s leading think tanks (in early August the Institute put the projected growth at 3.8% this year and at 4.2% next).

The IBnGR estimates that the Polish economy slowed only slightly in Q3, to 4% y-o-y. It predicts a more pronounced slowdown in the remainder of 2011 and into 2012, to below 3% y-o-y, but says it will be far from dramatic and is likely to last only until the end of the first quarter of next year. Thus GDP growth is projected be 2.8% in Q4 and 2.9% in Q1 2012, but is expected to pick up afterwards, with relatively stable expansion of 3.3-3.7% forecast for Q2-Q4 2012.

Even so, the slowdown is bound to cause heightened fiscal and labour-market pressures, the Institute cautioned. As a result, the jobless rate is forecast remain stubbornly high, at 12.2% as of the end of 2011 and at 12% as of the end of 2012, compared with 11.3% and 9.5% in the previous forecast.

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