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Inflation slows to 3.9% y-o-y in September


The consumer price index (CPI) amounted to 3.9% y-o-y in September, a deceleration compared with the previous month, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. The result was below market expectations, which averaged 4.1% y-o-y.

The highest price increase in the 12 months to September was noted in transport, a category that includes car fuel (up by 7.6% y-o-y), followed by housing and energy (up by 6.7% y-o-y), and education (up by 5.1% y-o-y). In hotels and restaurants prices went up by 4.4% y-o-y, while in alcoholic beverages and tobacco products as well as in health they increased by 4.2% y-o-y. Below-average inflation was recorded in food and non-alcoholic beverages (up by 3.3% y-o-y), in communication (up by 0.6% y-o-y) and recreation and culture (0.5% y-o-y). Clothing and footwear was the only category where prices declined compared with a year earlier, by 2.9% y-o-y.

On a month-on-month basis the CPI was 0.1% in September.

In January-September consumer prices grew by 4.2% y-o-y. Although a rising reference base should constrain inflation in the coming months, the significant depreciation of the zloty means any fall in the CPI is likely to be small. We forecast that in 2011 as a whole the average annualised CPI will be around 4%.

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