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IMF reduces forecast for Polish economy in 2012


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downwards its forecast of economic growth in Poland next year. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the Fund predicts that the Polish economy will grow by 3.8% in 2011, before slowing to 3% in 2012. This compares to 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, in its previous estimate published in April.

Average annual consumer inflation will be 4% this year and will drop to 2.8% in 2012, compared with 2.6% in 2010; while unemployment is expected to fall to 9.4% at the end of December and to 9.2% at end-2012, from 9.6% in 2010. At the same time, the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor forecasts that Poland’s general government deficit will fall to 5.5% of GDP in 2011 and to 3.8% of GDP in 2012.

By way of comparison, the Emerging Europe region as a whole (which includes Turkey, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia) is forecast to grow by 4.3% this year and 2.7% in 2012. Growth in Slovakia is to reach 3.3% in both 2011 and 2012, in the Czech Republic it is projected to be 2% and 1.8%, and in Hungary 1.8% and 1.7%. The projected figures for the eurozone are 1.6% and 1.1%.

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