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Credit Suisse: growth in Poland to remain at 4% in 2011-2012


Credit Suisse, the global financial services group, has affirmed its forecast of 4% growth in the Polish economy both in 2011 and in 2012. The bank cautioned however that the forecast was subject to downside risks as leading indicators suggested a slowdown of economic activity.

The bullish forecast was issued in response to better-than-expected figures for industrial output in August. According to Credit Suisse, the result will support a hawkish stance by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), which is likely to continue until inflation falls within the central bank’s target of 2.5%. At the same time, the Bank does not expect interest-rate increases as long as the global economy remains weak, and predicts that the main reference rate will stay at 4.5% by the end of 2012, barring new food and energy price shocks.

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