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Bank of America reduces growth forecast for Poland


Bank of America/Merrill Lynch (BoAML) has cut its forecast of economic growth in Poland in 2012 to 2.9% from 3.7%, reflecting weaker outlook for the eurozone. With sluggish growth in the euro area set to cause a slowdown in Polish exports, the bank expects real-terms growth in private consumption in Poland to slow to 2.5% next year, down from a projected 4.2% in 2011 and compared with its previous forecast of 3.7%; and investment to rise by 5.8% rather than 7%. Inflation is predicted to ease and remain near the central bank’s target of 2.5% for much of next year, brought down by weak growth and a high base of comparison. BoAML also anticipates a quarter-point interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2012 and assumes that rates will stand at 4% at the end of 2012, down from 4.5% in its previous forecast.

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