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JP Morgan downgrades GDP forecast for Poland again


JP Morgan downgraded its forecast for economic growth in Poland this year and the next year in response to less optimistic evaluations of the global economy. The US investment bank expects Poland’s GDP to grow by 3.8% in 2011 and 3% in 2012, as compared to earlier predictions of 4% and 3.4%.

JP Morgan analysts expect that Poland’s economic growth will slow down from 4% y-o-y, as estimated in H1 2011, to 2.5% y-o-y in H2 2011. In their opinion, CPI will remain at around 4% y-o-y, but it will drop to 3.5% y-o-y at the beginning of 2012, only to fall, by mid 2012, below the inflationary target set by the central bank at 2.5% y-o-y.

According to JP Morgan, despite a more challenging environment for growth, the coming quarters should see the tightening of fiscal policies "mostly due to the closeness to the 55% debt-to-GDP ratio". As a result, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) will have better grounds to reduce interest rates by 75 bps in H1 2012.

The recent review of the forecast for the economic growth in Poland is the second forecast downgrade by JP Morgan in the last two weeks. Citibank cut its forecast a few days earlier.

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