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Weaker export growth in June a result of deteriorating global conditions


2011-08-16

Latest surveys of business conditions and poorer macroeconomic figures from many countries indicate that following the expiry of stimulus measures, global growth began to slow down in the second quarter of the year. Economic activity was further undermined by the turmoil over the eurozone’s fiscal crisis. As a result, the German economy – the main recipient of Polish exports – also lost much of its momentum, with growth of 2.8% y-o-y in Q2, compared with 5% y-o-y in the preceding quarter. Under these circumstances, by the end of the first half of 2011 the flow of new export orders had weakened substantially.

We expect the deterioration in economic conditions and considerable uncertainty over the strength of the global recovery will have a negative impact on foreign trade figures also in the second half of the year, although export growth should remain in double-digit territory, thanks to the still relatively robust performance of the German economy and to a weak zloty. We forecast that in 2011 as a whole Polish exports of goods will grow by 13.9% and imports by 15.4%. As a result, the foreign trade deficit will amount to €17.3bn, i.e. about 4.5% of GDP.



Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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