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Inflation slows to 4.1% y-o-y in July


2011-08-12



The consumer price index (CPI) amounted to 4.1% y-o-y in July, a slight deceleration compared with the previous month, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. The result was below market expectations, which averaged 4.3% y-o-y.

The highest price increase in the 12 months to July was noted in housing and energy (up by 6.3% y-o-y), followed by transport, a category that includes car fuel (up by 6.1% y-o-y), and food and non-alcoholic beverages (up by 5.3% y-o-y). In hotels and restaurants prices went up by 4.5% y-o-y, in health by 4.3% y-o-y, in alcoholic beverages and tobacco products by 4% y-o-y, and in education by 2.7% y-o-y. Prices in recreation and culture inched up by 0.5% y-o-y. At the same time, clothing and footwear prices slipped by 0.1% y-o-y and communication charges dropped by 4% y-o-y.

On a month-on-month basis the CPI was -0.3% in July, the second negative reading in a row.

In January-July consumer prices rose by 4.2% y-o-y. In our view, although the inflationary pressure appears to be gradually moderating, the CPI is set remain above the upper end of the central bank’s target range (2.5% y-o-y +/- 1 p.p.) in the coming months. We expect a more pronounced fall in inflation to occur only in the fourth quarter. We forecast that in 2011 as a whole the average annualised CPI will be around 4%.



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