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JP Morgan reduces growth forecast for Polish economy to 4% in 2011


JP Morgan has lowered by two tenths of a percentage point its forecast of economic growth in Poland this year, reflecting the anticipated negative impact of the unusually strong Swiss franc. According to the US bank, the unprecedented strength of the Swiss currency, which has already pushed average monthly mortgage payments for Polish homebuyers by 25%, will weigh down on consumption, thus hurting economic growth. As a result, JP Morgan has downgraded its forecast of GDP growth in Poland this year to 4% from previously projected 4.2% (the forecast for 2012 remains unchanged at 4%).

At the same time, JP Morgan stressed that the strengthening of the franc should not be a cause of concern for the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) because the financial situation of households in Poland remained good.

In the boom years before the 2008 global crisis, Swiss franc-denominated loans represented even 70% of new mortgage loans in Poland.

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