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IBnGR predicts 3.8% GDP growth in 2012


2011-08-07



GDP growth in Poland will amount to 3.8% this year, same as in 2010, and will accelerate to 4.2% in 2012, according to a latest set of forecasts from the Gdansk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR), one of the country’s leading think tanks (in February the Institute put the projected growth at 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively).

The IBnGR expects a certain slowing of quarterly GDP growth in the remainder of this year, to 3.3% y-o-y in the fourth quarter (compared with 4.4% y-o-y in Q1), but notes that this will be mainly due to a higher base of comparison. In 2012 the Institute expects a further improvement in macroeconomic performance, helped by continued rebound in investment and by a recovery in the labour market.

The single most important shift in the GDP mix over 2011-2012 will be a rebound in gross fixed capital formation, which is forecast to increase by 5.7% y-o-y this year and 8.1% y-o-y next, while inventory rebuilding is expected to be a much smaller contributor to economic growth compared with last year. Consumption is projected to rise by 3.3% in 2011 and by 3.8% in 2012. As a result, domestic demand will grow by 4.1% this year and by 3.9% in 2012. The contribution of next exports will remain negative.

The jobless rate will be 11.3% at the end of 2011 and 9.5% at the end of 2012, the Institute predicts.



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