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BNP Paribas: GDP growth in Poland to slow to 2.9% in 2012


BNP Paribas, the French banking group, has published an updated forecast of economic growth in Poland this year and next that is the most pessimistic projection to date by a major financial institution. It partly reflects BNP’s expectation of slower growth in the eurozone.

Thus, the French bank expects the Polish economy to grow by 3.6% this year (down from 3.8% in 2010), and to slow further to 2.9% in 2012. By way of comparison, the Czech economy is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2012 and to accelerate to 2.5% in 2012, whereas Hungary is projected to expand by 2.6% both this year and next. The eurozone economy will grow by 2% in 2011 before slowing to 1.5% in 2012, the bank reckons.

Meanwhile, Poland’s general government deficit is expected to fall steadily, though not nearly as fast as predicted by the government. In 2011 it is forecast to reach 5.8% of GDP, before easing further to 4.9% of GDP in 2012 and to 4.6% in 2013.

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