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Lewiatan Business Index keeps steady in June


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index remained flat at 53 points for the third consecutive month in June, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index also stayed intact, at 54. According to the PKPP, this suggests that in the second quarter of the year the economy broadly maintained its momentum from Q1, and points to a stabilisation of GDP growth, or at worst a slight weakening, in the remainder of the year.

In its commentary, the Confederation pointed to continued strength of industrial output and consumption growth, and noted that while exports had slowed somewhat in recent months, they were running at record levels in volume terms.

On the other hand, new manufacturing orders are falling, which is major source of concern as it raises the prospect of weaker growth in Q3 amid slackening global recovery. If the world economy indeed slowed it would be difficult for Polish exports to maintain their current growth rate in the second half of the year, the Confederation said. However, the recovery in business investment that appears to be taking shape in Poland offers hope that demand for industrial goods will be maintained.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

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