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BIEC: economic climate slightly better in June


The Leading Indicator (WWK), which provides information on future trends in the economy, gained 0.5 points in June, the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported. The slight improvement came after two consecutive months of declines.

Of the eight component indicators of the WWK, four improved in June and four deteriorated. The biggest positive contributor was household debt, which grew for the second month in a row, reversing a downward trend that lasted almost a year. Also, inventory levels fell after rising for several preceding months, and there was a marginal improvement in assessments of the domestic economic outlook.

The main drag on the index were assessments of company financial situation, which deteriorated in June and remained below their level in the second half of 2010. Labour productivity also weakened, and new manufacturing orders, both domestic and foreign, remained sluggish, especially among makers of consumer goods. Particularly notable declines in order books are being reported by manufacturers of clothing and textiles, computers and electrical and optical equipment, or furniture makers.

The WWK is a prognostic instrument. It is a measure of the current state of economic activity and provides advanced information on upturns and downturns in economic activity in relation to GDP as well as data on production, retail sales, wages and household incomes. The average prognostic timeframe of the WWK index in relation to the actual state of economic affairs ranges from 3 to 12 months, depending on the phase of the economic cycle.

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