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Lewiatan Business Index keeps steady in May


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index remained flat at 53 points for the second consecutive month in May, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. At the same time, the quarterly index gained one point to 54. According to the PKPP, this suggests that in the remainder of the year the pace of economic growth will be similar or slightly lower than in the first quarter.

In its commentary, the Confederation noted that the economy was maintaining the strong momentum from late 2010, but that there were no signs of a major acceleration. Private consumption continues to be strong and should remain so in the months ahead, helped by recovery on the labour market and accelerating wage growth. Furthermore, the rise in business investment in Q1, the rebound in the construction sector and the revival in business lending suggest the recovery is becoming broader-based. This is all the more important given the certain weakening of export growth and its negative impact on industrial output. An increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows so far this year also gives cause for optimism. However, there is mounting concern that the tightening cycle initiated by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) might stop the nascent recovery in investments in its tracks.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

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