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Base effects drive sales jump in April


Although the surge in retail sales observed in April – the highest increase in more than three years – is clear evidence of continued recovery of private consumption, it should be remembered that the result can be partly explained by low base effects. In 2010 Easter fell at the very beginning of April, which meant that Poles did much of their pre-Easter shopping in March. Then there was the collapse in retail sales caused by the crash of the presidential plane in Smolensk and the period of national mourning that followed it. Though in the remainder of 2011 the reference base will not be as favourable, the nominal pace of retail sales growth should remain around 10% y-o-y in the coming months, thanks to a stronger recovery on the labour market and the associated improvement in the financial situation of households.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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