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EBRD forecasts 3.8% GDP growth in Poland in 2011


The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has made a slight downward revision of its forecast of economic growth in Poland in 2011. The EBRD now expects the Polish economy to expand by 3.8% this year, down from 3.9% in its previous projection published in January. This is still above the average growth rate predicted for the wider Central Europe and the Baltics region, despite an upward revision to 3.5% from 3.2%.

In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, the Bank notes that Poland looks poised for continued resilient growth, supported by domestic demand and public investment. However, it stresses that fiscal consolidation measures implemented so far are insufficient, and cautions that household consumption will be held back by a stubbornly high unemployment rate, while a cycle of monetary tightening undertaken by the central bank “could aggravate problems from capital inflows”, with implications for financial stability.

In 2012 GDP growth in Poland is forecast to slow to 3.5%.

By way of comparison, the updated forecast for Central Europe and the Baltic countries puts projected growth in the region at 3.5% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012. Economic growth in Slovakia is forecast to reach 3.7% this year and 4.1% in 2012, and the new projection for Hungary envisages growth of 2.7% and 2.8% respectively (the EBRD no longer produces forecasts for the Czech Republic).

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