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Lewiatan Business Index holds steady in April


2011-05-09



The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index was flat at 53 points in April, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. At the same time, the quarterly index gained a further four points to become level with the annual one. According to the PKPP, this suggests a stabilisation of economic growth at its current pace.

In its commentary, the Confederation pointed to continued dynamic growth in industrial output and retail sales, a boom in construction, and buoyant export growth that is outpacing rising imports. Furthermore, lending to business reached its highest level in one and a half years in March, which coupled with the bounce in construction could herald a long-awaited revival of investments, thus jump-starting a new engine of economic growth to complement consumption and exports. However, there are several sources of concern, notably a surge in consumer and (especially) producer inflation, fuelled by soaring commodity prices; a stubbornly high unemployment rate, which is unlikely to fall substantially before the end of the year; and the high level of the budget deficit and public debt.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.



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