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World Bank predicts solid growth in Poland in 2011-2012


The World Bank has published upgraded forecasts of GDP growth in the EU10 (i.e. new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe) that envisage the Polish economy maintaining a solid pace of recovery this year and next. In its latest EU10 Regular Economic Report, the bank predicts that economic growth in Poland will be 4% in 2011 and will accelerate to 4.2% in 2012, thanks to “low pre-crisis imbalances, deep integration into European production networks, EU funds and solid consumption”.

Only two other EU10 countries are expected to achieve faster growth during this period. In 2011 they will be Lithuania (4.3%) and Slovakia (4.1%); in 2012 Romania (4.4%) and again Slovakia (4.3%). In the Czech Republic growth is forecast to reach 2.2% this year and 2.7% in 2012, while in Hungary the projected figures are 2.8% and 3%, respectively.

The Bank notes with approval measures undertaken by the Polish government to address fiscal deficits, but stresses the need for more fiscal consolidation, as well as for other reforms, notably boosting labour participation.

Meanwhile, the report estimates that some 45-65% of the approx. 100,000-140,000 workers from EU8 countries (EU10 excluding Bulgaria and Romania) that are expected to migrate to Germany or Austria each year after these countries open up their labour markets on 1 May will be from Poland.

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