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Ministry predicts GDP growth to be around 4% by 2015, ease towards 3% by 2021


The Ministry of Finance expects GDP growth in Poland to hover at or somewhat below 4% in 2011-2015, and to weaken thereafter (while remaining above 3%), gradually converging to the long-term growth rate of the EU, according to an updated 10-year forecast published on 14 April. At the same time, inflation is expected to fall back around the target rate of 2.5% from 2012 onwards, after peaking at 3.5% this year.

Thus, the Polish economy is forecast to grow by 4% both in 2011 and 2012, before slowing to 3.7% in 2013 and picking up again to 3.9% in 2014 and 4% in 2015. However, over the six years to 2021 GDP growth will slow gradually, to 3.7% in 2016, 3.5% in 2017, and then easing by one-tenth of a point a year, to 3.1% in 2021, the ministry predicts. Consumer inflation will be around 2.8% in 2012, 2.5% in 2013-2017, and 2.4% in 2018-2021.

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