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Finance Ministry’s Multiyear Plan forecasts 4% GDP growth in 2011-2012


The Permanent Committee of the Council of Ministers on 31 March approved a Multiyear Financial Plan 2011-2014, a document prepared by the Ministry of Finance that outlines a path to bringing the general government deficit back down below 3% of GDP and cutting public debt.

According to the Plan, the Polish economy is forecast to grow by about 4% this year and next, before slowing to 3.7% in 2013 and accelerating again to 3.9% in 2014. Consumption is expected to remain the main engine of growth, supported by rising contribution from investment (mainly public investment co-funded by the EU).

Average annual inflation is to reach 3.5% in 2011 before slowing to 2.8% and to 2.5% in 2013 and 2014.

The general government deficit is forecast to fall to PLN 15bn (approx. €3.7bn) in 2014, from an estimated PLN 75.4bn (€18.8bn) in 2011. Public debt as a share of GDP is to be 49.7% in 2014, down from 52.7% this year.

Also on 31 March the Committee approved key assumptions of the draft 2012 budget, which envisage GDP growth of 4%, average annualised inflation of 2.8%, and a central budget deficit of less than PLN 37bn (€9.2bn).

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